Agenda Date: 12/09/2025
Subject:
Title
Project Downtown Economic Impact Study results
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From: |
James L. Becklenberg, City Manager |
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Prepared by: |
Adrienne Burton, Director of Major Projects |
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Presentations: |
Adrienne Burton, Director of Major Projects |
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Rachel King, Director of Economic Development |
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Brian Garner, Economic Development Manager |
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Tom Kiler, Spark & Halo |
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Nick Melfi, Jenn Todd-Goynes and Eric Hiraga, Matrix Design Group |
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Lily Djaniants, ZGF Architects |
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Arleen Taniwaki, Arland Land Use Economics |
PURPOSE:
The purpose of this study session is to present the findings of the Economic Impact Study (EIS) for Project Downtown, which evaluates potential economic return, private development feasibility, and long-range fiscal impacts associated with varying levels of public investment in Downtown Littleton.
This analysis is a point-in-time model prepared specifically for Project Downtown and the assumptions available today. It is not a land-use recommendation, not a proposal to change density, and not a commitment to pursue the maximum investment scenario. The study simply provides a comparative data model to inform planning and financial decision-making.
The EIS assesses three levels of public investment-No Investment, Medium Investment, and Maximum Investment-and models how each scenario could influence Downtown’s long-term economic performance, business activity, redevelopment feasibility, and City revenue growth over a 30-year period. Scenario outcomes are modeled using standard economic techniques required in the City’s Request for Proposal (RFP) and are not an expression of staff’s preferred policy direction.
This study session supports Council’s ongoing discussion about capital prioritization, long-term financial stewardship, and the role of Project Downtown within the broader capital financing framework presented in September 2025. At the September 9th study session, City Council provided general direction to staff to advance the design of Phase I improvements of Project Downtown (Main Street) and to continue developing a long-term capital financing plan for addressing the City’s growing backlog of deferred maintenance and future major project needs. As part of that discussion, Council expressed support for Certificates of Participation (COPs) as a potential funding tool for Phase I; however, no formal action was taken, and any future use of COPs would require Council consideration and approval at a later date. The EIS is intended to support these ongoing discussions by presenting current information on potential economic outcomes associated with varying levels of public investment.
LONG-TERM OUTCOME(S) SERVED:
Vibrant Community with a Rich Culture; Robust & Resilient Economy; Safe Community
DISCUSSION:
Building on Council Direction and Long-Term Planning
Project Downtown continues to be a central civic investment opportunity-supporting mobility, walkability, economic vitality, and the City’s identity. The EIS provides a quantitative foundation for understanding what public investment may unlock, what risks exist if investment is deferred, and how improvements to streets, utilities, and the public realm shape economic performance.
This study tested a range of market-feasible development outcomes, and this analysis is purely illustrative. It simply demonstrates the types of private investment that are commonly observed in peer communities when significant public improvements reduce development risk. Any future changes to zoning or land use would require separate policy discussions with Council, community engagement, and formal review processes. Any private investment modeled reflects typical market behavior observed nationally when communities invest in safe, attractive, and well-functioning downtown infrastructure-not a policy directive from the City.
Why Invest in Place?
Consistent with national research and the case studies presented (RiNo, The BLVD in Lancaster, Castle Rock Festival Park), well-designed public investment acts as a force multiplier by:
• Reducing development and business-operating risk
• Improving property values and long-term reinvestment conditions
• Supporting high-quality environments that attract residents, employers, and visitors
• Generating new sales and property tax revenues over time
Typically, cities that invest in their downtowns tend to remain more competitive, while cities that defer reinvestment tend to experience stagnation or decline. This principle is widely documented and does not depend on any particular land-use outcome.
Investment Scenarios: Summary and Outcomes
The three investment scenarios modeled in the Economic Impact Study (EIS) are directly grounded in the Project Downtown Concept Plan and the requirements outlined in the City’s Economic Impact Study RFP. Together, they illustrate a full spectrum of potential outcomes, from maintaining the status quo to implementing the complete vision adopted by Council in 2024.
How the Scenarios Were Developed
As outlined in the EIS RFP, the consultant team was directed to:
• Evaluate short- and long-term economic impacts of the capital improvements identified in Project Downtown.
• Model at least three scenarios, ranging from a baseline/no-build condition to a moderate investment and a full build-out consistent with the Concept Plan.
• Assess catalytic development potential, including infill redevelopment, adaptive reuse, and mixed-use activity likely to emerge in response to public investment.
These requirements ensure the model captures how private investment typically responds to public investment.
Scenario Alignment with the Project Downtown Concept Plan
No Investment Scenario
The No Investment Scenario reflects the required “baseline” condition-representing what happens if the City takes no action and Project Downtown improvements are not constructed. This scenario does not draw from Concept Plan elements because it models the consequences of not implementing the long-term vision. It provides a critical point of comparison to understand the economic and fiscal implications of maintaining current infrastructure and conditions.
Medium and Maximum Investment Scenarios
The Medium and Maximum Investment Scenarios mirror scaled versions of the vetted improvements in Project Downtown Final Report. Both scenarios draw directly from the geographic scope, street hierarchy, and mobility network defined in the Concept Plan.
• The Medium Scenario focuses primarily on Main Street and targeted node enhancements, consistent with the first-phase priorities and highest-readiness improvements.
• The Maximum Scenario reflects the fully connected street network and public realm envisioned in the Concept Plan, including improvements to Main, Alamo, Prince, and Nevada streets as well as catalytic redevelopment areas. This scenario does not include Little’s Creek improvements, as those concepts remain high-level, exploratory, and without sufficient definition or scale to be reliably modeled at this time.
Together, these three scenarios provide a complete framework for evaluating how the scale of Project Downtown investment influences long-term outcomes, private development feasibility, and Littleton’s economic competitiveness.
1. No Investment Scenario - “Status Quo / Baseline Condition”
The No Investment Scenario represents a continuation of existing conditions with no public improvements to Main Street, the surrounding corridors, or the public realm. While characterized as a “no-build” scenario for modeling purposes, in reality the City would still incur ad hoc or emergency infrastructure repairs as issues arise. These unplanned interventions-such as utility failures, pavement degradation, ADA hazards, or spot stormwater repairs-tend to be more costly, more disruptive to businesses, and less coordinated than planned capital improvements. This scenario was included in the RFP to understand the consequences of inaction relative to the outcomes envisioned in the Concept Plan.
Under this scenario:
• No meaningful growth in jobs, sales tax, redevelopment, or private investment occurs.
• Existing infrastructure deficiencies persist, increasing long-term maintenance liability and risk of disruptive repairs.
• Downtown’s competitiveness erodes, as neighboring communities continue reinvesting in their districts.
• Economic resilience weakens, with slower recovery from downturns, consistent with national research on under-invested legacy districts.
This scenario provides a foundational baseline against which to measure the economic and fiscal impacts of reinvestment and demonstrates the long-term opportunity cost-and increasing risk-associated with delaying action.
2. Medium Investment Scenario - “Main Street + Node Activation”
The Medium Investment Scenario models improvements that focus primarily on Main Street, with limited complementary investments around the RTD station and other strategic nodes. This scenario aligns closely with Phase I of Project Downtown as identified in the Concept Plan and supported by significant community feedback during planning.
Under this scenario:
• Public improvements are concentrated along Main Street, where aging utilities, narrow sidewalks, ADA constraints, and limited pedestrian amenities are most pronounced.
• Streetscape enhancements, modernized infrastructure, lighting, trees, pedestrian safety treatments, and public realm improvements are assumed.
• Improvements to the RTD station parking area are incorporated to support multimodal access and strengthen the connection between transit and downtown.
These elements reflect the Concept Plan’s emphasis on strengthening the “core spine” of downtown before expanding improvements outward.
Economic Implications:
Because this scenario targets the area where redevelopment feasibility is already strongest, it generates meaningful economic return with a modest level of public investment:
• $36.5M in public improvements
• Up to $201M in private sector reinvestment (6:1 leverage)
• Approximately $905M in combined economic and fiscal impact over 30 years
• More than 1,200 jobs (994 one-time jobs + 220 on-going jobs)
The Medium Scenario represents a strong, fiscally conservative option that delivers substantial long-term value while staying close to the adopted first-phase scope.
3. Maximum Investment Scenario - “Integrated Downtown Network”
The Maximum Investment Scenario models the majority of the vision articulated in the Project Downtown Concept Plan, combining the Main Street improvements with significant reinvestment across Prince Street, Nevada Street, Alamo Avenue, and other priority corridors. These streets were identified during planning as critical elements of a connected, walkable network that supports business access, event programming, multimodal travel, and future redevelopment.
This scenario extends improvements into areas where catalytic private development is more likely to occur when supported by high-quality public infrastructure-such as:
• The RTD station area and adjacent redevelopment parcels
• Underutilized infill lots throughout downtown
• The northwest corner of Bowles and Santa Fe, a gateway location
• Geneva Village
These sites reflect the RFP requirement to evaluate catalytic development scenarios, such as infill housing, adaptive reuse, and mixed-use redevelopment, and to consider where coordinated public investment would realistically unlock private development.
Economic Implications:
The broader geographic scope and higher quality of improvements produce significantly higher long-term economic returns:
• $93.5M in public improvements
• Up to $980M in private development (10:1 leverage)
• Approximately $4.4B in combined economic and fiscal impact over 30 years
• More than 5,800 jobs (4,624 one-time jobs + 1,190 on-going jobs)
The Maximum Scenario reflects a major reinvestment envisioned in Project Downtown and illustrates what is possible when high-quality public improvements are paired with strategic redevelopment opportunities across multiple corridors.
How These Scenarios Support Long-Term Planning
The scenarios provide a range of possible outcomes, not a recommended direction. They allow Council to compare the scale of investment versus potential economic return. The scenarios are designed to illustrate the range of outcomes possible within Project Downtown, rather than prescribe a single path. Council can use this information to guide funding strategies, sequencing decisions, community engagement, and alignment with other major capital needs. The EIS is strictly a decision-support tool, not a land-use recommendation or density proposal.
BACKGROUND:
Project Downtown is a comprehensive initiative to reinvest in the heart of Littleton and ensure that Main Street and the surrounding districts remain vibrant, safe, and economically resilient for decades to come. The effort emerged from a multi-year planning process that engaged City Council, the Littleton Downtown Development Authority, residents, business owners, and regional partners in identifying the streetscape, infrastructure, and mobility improvements needed to support a thriving downtown.
The program’s goals extend beyond aesthetics-focusing on modernizing aging utilities, improving pedestrian safety and access, enhancing public spaces, strengthening business activity, and advancing the city’s long-term vision for livability and economic sustainability. City Council unanimously adopted the Project Downtown Concept Plan in November 2024, establishing a clear framework for long-term investments in mobility, connectivity, pedestrian safety, wayfinding, and public realm improvements.
Main Street as Phase I
Within the broader program, Main Street was identified as the highest-priority first phase. Throughout the planning process, stakeholders consistently emphasized that Main Street functions as both the symbolic and economic center of Littleton-where infrastructure deficiencies are most acute and where improvements will produce the greatest community and fiscal benefit. Beginning with Main Street ensures that Project Downtown launches with highly visible, high-impact improvements that build momentum, support future investment, and signal long-term commitment to a vibrant and future-ready downtown.
Since the 2021 3A Capital Sales Tax ballot measure, the City has taken sequential steps to advance capital readiness, culminating in a Long-Term Capital Financing discussion in September 2025 that confirmed:
• Project Downtown, the Service Center, and Town Hall Arts Center could all be advanced within current 3A revenue projections.
• COP funding remains a viable path that preserves future flexibility, and Council greenlighted a funding strategy to advance design for Phase I improvements at Main Street.
• A dynamic, cyclical long-term capital financing plan is required to address the City’s growing backlog of deferred maintenance as well as future major projects.
Prior Actions or Discussions
City Council Study Session - Long-term Capital Financing - September 09, 2025
City Council Study Session - Retreat Follow-Up - May 13, 2025
City Council Retreat - March 14 - 15, 2025
Project Downtown Concept Plan Adoption - November 19, 2024
FISCAL IMPACTS:
The EIS does not prescribe a funding mechanism. However, it provides quantitative evidence relevant to fiscal decision-making:
• Medium Investment Scenario → ~$900M total impact
• Maximum Investment Scenario → ~$4.4B total impact
• Both scenarios expand Littleton’s long-term tax base and employment base
STAFF RECOMMENDATION:
Staff is not recommending any change to land use, zoning, or density. Recommendations relate solely to process, planning, and continued readiness.
1. Advancing Phase I - Main Street Improvements
Continue progressing the Main Street implementation work as identified in the Project Downtown Concept Plan, including project initiation tasks, procurement preparation, and preliminary design activities needed to maintain readiness.
2. Continuing Long-Term Capital Financing Planning
Maintain momentum on the long-term capital financing framework introduced in September 2025, including analysis of future debt cycles, sequencing options, and potential funding pathways [COPs, General Obligation (GO) Bonds, grants] to support future phases of Project Downtown and other major capital needs.
3. Using the EIS as a Decision-Support Tool
Apply the EIS results to upcoming discussions on capital prioritization, financial strategy, and community engagement, ensuring future decisions are grounded in data and aligned with Council’s fiscal stewardship principles.
These steps will position the City to move efficiently into Phase I implementation while building the financial and organizational groundwork needed for future investment cycles.
ALTERNATIVES:
There are no recommended alternatives.